Private Rentenversicherung, Besteuerung und adverse Selektion

Adverse selection is commonly regarded as an important explanation for the limited size of voluntary annuity markets. Annuitants tend to be longer-lived than the population at large, thus making annuities too expensive for average individuals. Because German tax law discrimates between annuities and other forms of investment, privileged taxation of annuities might compensate for the cost of adverse selection. A major change in the taxation of annuities has been passed recently: From 2005 on, premium payments for deferred life annuities will be tax-deductible and annuities paid out will be fully taxable, if the annuitant cannot opt for an endowment. Premiums for other contracts are not tax-deductible and annuities are partly taxable. Unlike today, endowment payments won’t be tax free, anymore. We evaluate the cost of theoretical, fairly priced contracts for annuitants and non-annuitants using the money’s worth ratio. Therefore, the money’s worth concept is extended to the case of deferred annuities. Our calculations suggest that, under current legislation, average individuals have no incentive to annuitize. In contrast, under new legislation, the tax advantage of the deferred annuity without endowment option more than compensates for the cost of adverse selection. Single premium annuities will remain too expensive for average men, but may become advantageous for average women in some cases.     

Eastern Germany's quality as a business location

Private investment has a key role to play in the “economic take-off” in Eastern Germany. Can the region attract sufficient investment? What factors stand in the way of a rapid improvement in the quality of the new Länder as a location?     

THE SECTORAL PRODUCTIVITY PERFORMANCE O F JAPAN AND THE U.S., 1885–1990

This paper provides a disaggregated productivity comparison between Japan and the U.S. for the period 1885–1990. It combines two detailed productivity comparisons for 1939 and 1975 with time series to provide a long-term sectoral perspective. There is much diversity in the Japanese experience. The agricultural sector has shown relative stagnation since 1885. The service sector showed considerable growth before the Second World War and reached high productivity levels in the post-war period. Within services there is great diversity in productivity levels. Japan's manufacturing sector has shown the fastest catch-up and its productivity level is currently close to that of the U.S.     

How to hire helpers? Evidence from a field experiment

How to hire voluntary helpers? We shed new light on this question by reporting a field experiment in which we invited 2859 students to help at the ‘ESA Europe 2012’ conference. Invitation emails varied non-monetary and monetary incentives to convince subjects to offer help. Students could apply to help at the conference and, if so, also specify the working time they wanted to provide. Just asking subjects to volunteer or offering them a certificate turned out to be significantly more motivating than mentioning that the regular conference fee would be waived for helpers. By means of an online-survey experiment, we find that intrinsic motivation to help is likely to have been crowded out by mentioning the waived fee. Increasing monetary incentives by varying hourly wages of 1, 5, and 10 Euros shows positive effects on the number of applications and on the working time offered. However, when comparing these results with treatments without any monetary compensation, the number of applications could not be increased by offering money and may even be reduced.     

Consequences of misspecified mental models: Contrasting effects and the role of cognitive fit

Research summary: Mental models, reflecting interdependencies among managerial choice variables, are not always correctly specified. Mental models can be underspecified, missing interdependencies, or overspecified, containing nonexistent interdependencies. Using a simulation model, we find that under‐ and overspecification have opposite effects on exploration, and thereby, performance. The effects are also opposite, depending on whether a manager controls all choice variables. The mechanism underlying our results is a feedback loop: misspecified mental models influence managerial learning about the effectiveness of choices; this learning guides how the environment is explored, which in turn, affects which information will be generated for future learning. We explore implications of these results for strategic management and introduce the notion of “cognitive fit” between the mental model of the decision‐maker and the strategic environment. Managerial summary: Managers often rely on mental models to guide their decision‐making. These mental models, however, are often misspecified, that is, more or less complex than the situation managers are facing. Using a simulation model, we study the consequences of such misspecified mental models. We find that the performance implications of misspecified mental models crucially depend on whether the manager controls all choice variables. We identify situations in which simpler mental models are better than overly complex ones, and vice versa. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Finance Is Not the Economy: Reviving the Conceptual Distinction

Conflation of real capital with finance capital is at the heart of current misunderstandings of economic crisis and recession. We ground this distinction in the classical analysis of rent and the difference between productive and unproductive credit. We then apply it to current conditions, in which household credit — especially mortgage credit — is the premier form of unproductive credit.

This is supported by an institutional analysis of postwar U.S. development and a review of quantitative empirical research across many countries. Finally, we discuss contemporary consequences of the financial sector’s malformation and overdevelopment.     

Samuelson and Davidson on ergodicity: A reformulation

The concept of ergodicity in economics seems to have the qualities of a shibboleth—a word or saying used by adherents of a party, sect, or belief, and usually regarded by others as empty of real meaning. It is in use by both neoclassical economics—after Samuelson (1965 Samuelson, P. A. “Proof That Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly.” Industrial Management Review, 1965, 6 (2), 41–49.[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], p. 43), who used the term in his paper on what later became a foundation of the efficient market hypothesis—and post Keynesian economics—after Davidson, who picked up the term in order to highlight methodological differences. Considering the origin of the concept in statistical physics and its use in the topology of dynamical systems, which most economists are not conversant with, the importance ascribed to ergodicity in economic debate seems mystifying. We deconstruct the meaning of the term in the major contributions of Samuelson and Davidson. We suggest an alternative to (non)ergodicity to discuss the nature of randomness in the real world. While neoclassical theory assumes stochastic randomness, post Keynesians assume nonstochastic randomness, a term developed by the mathematician Kolmogorov (1986 Kolmogorov, A.N. “On the Logical Foundations of Probability Theory.” In K. Ito, and J.V. Prokhorov (eds.), Probability and Mathematical Statistics, Moscow, 1986, pp. 467–471. [Google Scholar], p. 467). We argue that even in an ergodic world there is a problem with the idea that stochastic randomness can be dealt with by the financial system.     

Return patterns of South Korean stocks following large price shocks

This study tests the market efficiency of the South Korean stock market by examining returns on stocks of the constituents of the KOSPI 50 from 2000 to 2014 following large 1-month price decreases and increases. An exponential GARCH (EGARCH) event study framework is used to analyse the stock returns. The results show that large price shocks, positive and negative, are likely to be followed by positive market returns. Moreover, the results show an increase in the beta of stocks in the years following a large price shock. The overall results therefore support the Uncertain Information Hypothesis. However, beginning in 2008, return patterns more closely reflect those hypothesised by the Efficient Market Hypothesis, possibly due to increased participation by international investors. The observed returns following large price increases and decreases can be partially explained by changes in the Korean won to US dollar exchange rate and the trading behaviour of foreign investors.     

The Extent and Evolution of Productivity Deficiency in Eastern Germany

Since the German re-unification in 1990, Eastern Germany has been a transition economy. After a phase of catching up in productivity with Western Germany from 1991 to 1996, growth rates in the producing sector have dropped below those in Western Germany since 1997. This study investigates whether this macroeconomic picture holds at the microeconomic level. For the special case of Eastern Germany, I suggest identifying productivity gaps by using comparable Western German firms as a “productivity benchmark”. Applying an econometric matching procedure allows to study the productivity gap at the firm level in detail. Besides labor and capital, other factors like innovation and firm ownership are taken into account. The macroeconomic facts are broadly confirmed: a significant gap has remained in recent years. Moreover, Eastern German innovators perform worse than their Western German pendants, and firms owned by Western German or foreign companies perform better than those owned by Eastern German entities.